BITRE – Transport Energy Futures: Long Term Oil Supply Trends and Projections

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The methodology used in this report is new and allows detailed patterns of future oil production to be forecast from past patterns in oil discovery, when the levels of the discovery data are adjusted to those indicated by past production data.

This adjustment of discovery data (usually upwards) results in higher assessments of possible future production than the so-called ‘peak oil’ analysts.

But it also results in lower forecasts than those from the ‘cornucopians’ as they may be called, who do not see the patterns of current production pointing to a plateau in oil production any time soon.

Using this paper’s methodology, forecasts of future oil production for 40 countries/ regions around the world have been produced.

Production prospects of different countries and regions vary immensely.
North American production is set to rebound to 2035 under the impetus of large increases in Canadian heavy and Gulf of Mexico deep water oils.

Size4.76 MB
Create DateAugust 1, 2013
Last UpdatedApril 1, 2015